Manipal Payment & Identity Solutions (Manipal Cards)

India remains underpenetrated in payment cards relative to larger global markets, while bank-account growth, formal credit access and financial inclusion continue to widen the issuer base. This supports both first-time issuance and replacement demand. For manufacturers, value growth can outpace unit growth as the mix shifts toward chip-enabled, dual-interface, customized and premium cards.

The key drivers are:

• Payment-card issuance: Credit, debit and PPI cards are projected to increase from 335.0 million units in FY25 to 535.0 million in FY30, a 13.1% CAGR over FY26-FY30

• Market value: India payment-card TAM is projected to rise from INR 2,849.9 Cr in FY25 to INR 6,054.2 Cr in FY30, implying approximately 16.3% CAGR over FY25-FY30

• Underpenetration: Payments-card penetration in India is about 1 card per population aged 15+, compared with 7.2 in the US, 8.0 in China and 2.3 in Europe

• Financial inclusion: Around 584.5 million Jan-Dhan accounts had been opened by June 2026, while about 407.2 million, or 69.7%, had RuPay debit cards, leaving additional issuance headroom

UPI dominates small-ticket payment volume, but credit cards remain relevant for larger discretionary purchases, financing, rewards and cross-border acceptance. This creates a complementary rather than purely substitutive role for cards. Premiumization further lifts manufacturer realizations because metal, contactless, dual-interface and customized cards carry greater technical complexity and pricing than standard plastic cards.

The key drivers are:

• Credit-card issuance is projected to reach 123.0 million units by FY30; the corresponding market is projected at INR 2,226.6 Cr, with FY26-FY30 market CAGR of 43.2%

• Metal-card issuance is projected to reach 10.5 million cards by FY30 and the Indian metal-card market INR 2,098.3 Cr, with FY26-FY30 market CAGR of 47.6%

• UPI accounted for about 85% of payment-transaction volume in FY26, yet H1 CY25 credit-card POS average ticket size was about INR 3,022 versus INR 1,348 for UPI

• Credit-card POS transaction value reached approximately INR 10.5 trillion in FY26, supporting demand for higher-value card propositions even as UPI scales

Government programs increasingly use secure physical credentials alongside digital databases. Driving licences, registration certificates, Aadhaar PVC cards, e-passports and mobility cards require secure substrates, personalization, encryption, authentication and controlled fulfilment. The opportunity therefore extends beyond commodity printing toward qualified vendors that can meet government eligibility, multilingual production and security requirements.

The key drivers are:

• Smart government IDs in circulation are projected to increase from 136.7 million in FY25 to 302.2 million in FY30, with a 16.5% CAGR over FY26-FY30

• Government smart-card issuance, including Aadhaar, driving licences and e-passports, is projected to reach 40.2 million units in FY30

• Government-ID smart-card market value is projected to reach INR 588.3 Cr by FY30, growing at 22.5% CAGR over FY26-FY30; e-passport market value alone is projected to grow at 44.0%

• NCMC / One Nation One Card extends card use into metro, rail, buses, parking and retail; around 48 banks had issued approximately 200 million NCMC-enabled cards by March 2024

The sector benefits from growth in formal payments and identity digitization, but physical-card economics remain exposed to rapid payment innovation and stringent security requirements. UPI and virtual cards can displace low-value physical-card use cases, while issuer underwriting changes can slow credit-card issuance. At the same time, manufacturers must continuously invest in certifications, cybersecurity, quality control and new form factors to avoid technology obsolescence.

The key risks are:

• Digital substitution: UPI recorded 240.1 billion transactions in FY26 and about 85% of payment-transaction volume, reducing reliance on cards for small-ticket everyday payments

• Regulatory cyclicality: RBI risk-weight tightening and supervisory actions can reduce unsecured-credit / card issuance; PPI KYC and credit-line restrictions can also slow prepaid-card demand

• Security / certification burden: PCI-DSS and payment-network approvals create entry barriers but require continuous spending and expose vendors to severe reputational risk if cardholder data is compromised

• Supply / technology risk: Semiconductor modules, PVC / overlay, inlays, metals, security inks and certified components can face supply disruption, price volatility and short technology cycles

Government support is indirect but meaningful: financial inclusion expands bank accounts and RuPay issuance, mobility policy creates interoperable transit credentials, and digital identity programs create demand for secure government cards. These policies broaden the installed base and qualification opportunities, although they do not guarantee tenders or protect physical cards from competing digital payment modes.

The key policies are:

• PMJDY / RuPay: Approximately 584.5 million Jan-Dhan accounts existed by June 2026 and about 407.2 million RuPay debit cards had been issued, supporting continued financial-inclusion issuance

• NCMC / One Nation One Card: Interoperable contactless cards across metro, rail, buses, parking and retail expand transit use cases; RBI has permitted low-value NCMC issuance without full KYC up to prescribed limits

• Aadhaar and e-government: PVC Aadhaar, driving-licence / registration-certificate modernization and phased e-passport rollout expand secure identity-card demand

• Make in India: domestic production preference, particularly for public-sector bank and government requirements, can support qualified Indian manufacturers and reduce import dependence in premium / secure cards